To get the PROJECTED TIME, first compute the speed of the horse based on the Previous Race Time & Distance versus Current Race Distance.

1. (Previous Race Time / Previous Race Distance) * (Current Race Distance) / 100

2. Then if the Previous Race Time is greater than 120 seconds subtract 1.2 + 2 to the result of #1

3. If the Previous Race Time is greater than 60 seconds subtract 0.6 + 1 to the result of #1

Example Given: 

Previous Race Time = 99 seconds (1.39 is converted to seconds)

Previous Race Distance = 1500 meters

Current Race Distance = 1450 meters

Solution:

(99seconds / 1500 meters) =  0.066 * 1450 = 95.7 / 100 = 0.957 (in this case we will use (-0.6 + 1)

Current Race Time = 0.957 - 0.6 + 1 = 1.36 

Then compute the speed of the horse based on the Previous Race Time, Weight & Distance versus Current Race Weight & Distance.

1.  ((Previous Race Time / Previous Race Weight / Previous Race Distance) *     (Current Race Weight * Current Race Distance)) / 100 )

2.  same as the formula of #2 Third Column3.  same as the formula of #3 Third Column

Example Given:

Previous Race Time = 99 seconds (1.39 is converted to seconds)

Previous Race Weight = 52                            Current Race Weight = 53

Previous Previous Race Distance = 1500       Current Race Distance = 1450

Solution:

((99seconds / 52 / 1500) * (53 *1450)) = (0.001269 * 76850) / 100 = 0.9752 (use the given = -0.6 + 1)

Current Race Time = 0.9683 - 0.6 + 1 = 1.38

                                   

Using the results of the previous computations, the PROJECTED TIME can now be computed using the formula below.

1.  ((Result of First Computation) + (Result of Second Computation * 2) / 3) =

( 1.38 ) + ( 1.36 * 2 ) = ( 1.38 + 2.72 ) = 4.09 / 3 = 1.36 

 

The Example Given above is based on this Race Analysis: March 15, 2003